Thoughts on the Iran Drone Shootdowns

[Art]

I've been thinking about this a lot lately and here are some things that have been knocking around in my head.

For decades we have operated drones in or near the airspace of near and middle eastern countries with impunity. It's been easy because of the lack of systems that can engage them. Recently the Iranians have obtained Russian manufactured S 300 surface to air missile systems. The capabilities of the S 300 system are well known but had never been tested against any target of a comparable power. I think it should be noted that the S 300 is not the most capable Russian air defense system and is gradually being phased out in favor of the newer S 400 air defense system.

The drone shot down over or near Iran was an RQ 4A. This is a big deal because this is the most capable surveillance drone we have. it is also big, the wingspan is greater than a Boeing 737 airline, and very expensive with each unit costing several million dollars more than an F35 stealth joint strike fighter. It is not stealthy but flies very high (over 10 miles) and its electronic countermeasures would be the best we can possibly produce. Despite this it was shot down, certainly by an S 300. This had to be very disturbing to the Pentagon folks.

This is the latest in a long list of Iranian provocations. The President seemed to be ready to "pull the trigger" on a strike in retaliation but changed his mind at the last minute.

Donald Trump campaigned on not getting us into another "tar baby" military involvement and that was probably on his mind.

I take him at his word that he didn't think the lives of over a hundred people killed in a successful retaliatory strike was not proportional to the offense despite the loss of a very valuable asset.

I also think that it shows he is not at the beck and call of the neo cons (Pompeo and Bolton) on his staff who have never seen a war they didn't like.

Now, some military problems and a disclaimer. I have some first hand knowledge of air defense systems but its really out of date and I admit that a lot of this is supposition and inference by me and military analysts who publish stuff. That said I am sure we could take out the S 300 site that got the drone but there are issues.

The general view seems to be that only stealth assets could carry out an air attack on an S 300 site with a strong chance of success. In fact the procurement of F35 fighters by the Israelis is supposed to have been made, in part, because of the deployment of this system in their area. The use of combined F22s and B2s was mentioned as a possibility, but, in view of this RQ 4A shootdown, we may be having doubts about our understanding of the true potential of the S 300 system. In the Kosovo war we lost an F 15 "stealth fighter" to much less capable assets and the loss of even one F22 or B2 would be a very big deal, especially if they actually went down over Iranian air space.

The best shot would probably be cruise missiles but the S 300 system is highly mobile and can move and set up on very short notice so if Soviet satellites detected the cruise missile launch and the Iranians were immediately notified they might be able to move the system in time. The cruise missiles would get it eventually but might require the expending of a lot more rounds than we'd like.

I have a feeling this whole thing is more complicated than is being let out.

[lyman]

I have a feeling this whole thing is more complicated than is being let out.

surely it is,

[Allen]

If an attack comes we could flood them with missiles launched from ships and subs. They couldn't shoot them all down. They will empty their S-300 supply trying. I'm sure many, many targets are of interest. Firing several missiles at each site of importance should guarantee that some will hit and destroy.

Another thought is to target and take out Tehran completely. Sure, the silos and missile launchers are in other places as well but taking out the "heart" of Iran would perhaps halt things.

I'm sure the military has done it's homework and surveillance but my concern is that Iran may launch countermeasures from other countries where it is not expected.

If we could accomplish air superiority MOAB's could be dropped to wipe out bunkers and underground facilities.

I know things are far more complicated than we know of but I don't see us putting boots on the ground there.

The biggest thing I see on attacking Iran is keeping Russia from not joining in.

[Mark in Ottawa]

I think that the primary question though, is where was the drone when it was hit. If it was over Iran, then it is hard to question their right to shoot it down. If it was over the water, then shooting it down can reasonably be considered as an act of war that calls for a similar response of some sort. The response need not be a similar act against the Iranian military but could be some sort of economic attack. I am reminded that about 40 years or so ago, the Egyptians sank an Israeli destroyer without provocation. The Israelis did not respond by attacking an Egyptian military target as one would expect, but rather, used artillery to blow up an Egyptian oil refinery, something that was much more disruptive than sinking a WWII destroyer. There are options

[Allen]

used artillery to blow up an Egyptian oil refinery, something that was much more disruptive than sinking a WWII destroyer. There are options

That is what Graham has suggested, that we take out their navy and refineries. This could be done in addition to other things too.

Today begins stiffer sanctions against Iran, it won't bring peace but may quiet them for a while.

[S.A. Boggs]

Let the Iranian's guess what will happen when the shoe falls. Cruise missiles, as noted, are affect for their intended purposes. If need be a tactical nuclear strike could be a last resort on the table and let the Iranians know it. No sense playing around, hit them and hit them HARD as possible. I worry more about what the nitwits in Congress will try and do to appease their liberal base.
Sam

[barretcreek]

It's safe to say if the drone was anywhere near Iranian territory they'd have photos of the wreckage. They don't, therefore it was well out in international airspace.

There is a video of some left wing thug pulling up pro-life crosses, trying to instigate a physical reaction. The folks who put out the crosses showed self restraint, (more than I would have) and let the campus police deal with the little jerk. Same with the Iranians. They wanted retaliation and we need some backbone from our "allies" or this will get worse.

Art makes the good point about the capabilities of Ivan's AD equipment. All that money they've shelled out for espionage is paying off.

[Roadkingtrax]

Reminds me of Malaysian Flight 17.

Russia probably pulled the trigger.

[Art]

It's safe to say if the drone was anywhere near Iranian territory they'd have photos of the wreckage. They don't, therefore it was well out in international airspace.

There is a video of some left wing thug pulling up pro-life crosses, trying to instigate a physical reaction. The folks who put out the crosses showed self restraint, (more than I would have) and let the campus police deal with the little jerk. Same with the Iranians. They wanted retaliation and we need some backbone from our "allies" or this will get worse.

Art makes the good point about the capabilities of Ivan's AD equipment. All that money they've shelled out for espionage is paying off.

The Iranians actually have posted pictures of what they say is wreckage of the drone. Whether it is or not is another matter, the Iranians lie more than they tell the truth. Expert analysis would be needed for that and I'm sure not an expert. I think it was probably in international air space but since we do regularly interdict the airspace of other countries in the area I wouldn't bet the house on it. I'm just glad it wasn't a U2!!!!

I wouldn't make the mistake of thinking that the Rooskies are incapable of innovation. We paid the price for thinking the same thing about the Japanese in 1941. That we would defeat the Japanese was, as it turned out, inevitable. Underestimating them made the cost a lot higher than it needed to be.

[lyman]

Let the Iranian's guess what will happen when the shoe falls. Cruise missiles, as noted, are affect for their intended purposes. If need be a tactical nuclear strike could be a last resort on the table and let the Iranians know it. No sense playing around, hit them and hit them HARD as possible. I worry more about what the nitwits in Congress will try and do to appease their liberal base.
Sam

no nukes,

if we drop a nuke, it will be a very bad thing in today's world,

and an excuse for some other nuke welding country to follow