What are the odds?

[Guamsst]

A while back I bought a Type 38 Carbine for $150 without looking it over very well. It needed a safety knob, firing pin and spring...no big deal. After I bought it I looked it over and it turned out to be a Nagoya no series, total production 2,000 rifles, the rarest variation of 38 carbine. I just traded it off to a friend who has/had one of the best Jap collections in the country but never had this variation. He gave me about $1,600 in trade on it. So, yeah, I hit it out of the park on that one.
This past weekend I found a sportered Type 38 in a nice Fajen stock. I noticed that the barrel was stepped at the end and it seemed to have been a carbine not a cutdown. I picked it up for $100 and it turned out to be an original Carbine with minimal damage. Mukden Arsenal and total production of 7,000 rifles, the second rarest variation of 38 carbine. I will restore this one and may or may not keep it. The next rarest carbine had a run of 80,000 rifles.
What are the chances though of finding the two rarest variations back to back and for under $200 without actually knowing what I was buying until after the fact?

[psteinmayer]

That's incredible! Awesome finds. (some guys have all the luck, LOL)

[ebeeby]

Hope you bought a lottery ticket....

[Dick Hosmer]

LUCKY indeed!!! Most people who buy things without knowing what they are, wind up paying the price for their lack of diligence.

We've seen hundreds of them here: "I just bought a whatzaputz for $2000, but I don't know anything about them. Did I get a good deal?"

Stupidest fracking question I ever heard, but we get it over and over again.

[Guamsst]

I bought both of these based on them being "parts guns". That is the only way to buy a gun before doing the research. But yes, there are plenty of people who buy the gun at a premium price then do the research later to see if it is really a premium gun.

The Fajen stock, Williams sight set and the ruined bolt are almost up to $60 already so this may end up being a "Free" gun in need of restoration.

As for the first carbine. In the $1,600 trade I got a rope hole Type99 and a rectangular crossguard bayonet (Almost a pole bayonet). I wanted both of those more than I wanted a rare but boring carbine.

[Fred]

LUCKY indeed!!! Most people who buy things without knowing what they are, wind up paying the price for their lack of diligence.

We've seen hundreds of them here: "I just bought a whatzaputz for $2000, but I don't know anything about them. Did I get a good deal?"

Stupidest fracking question I ever heard, but we get it over and over again.

LOLOL!!! That is so Very True!


"I just got married to this woman... How did I do? I don't know anything about women and so I'm really in the dark. Did I do OK?"
What is anybody doing buying or wanting to buy a firearm that they know absolutely nothing about? How can they even begin to enjoy a thing that they know nothing about? Are they buying it in the hopes of being lucky enough to get something rare and unusual that they can bring out and impress the other collectors? It don't work like that.
"How do I remove this cleaning rod or Ram Rod from this Trapdoor Springfield? It just won't pull out no matter how hard I pull on it. What am I doing wrong?" is another absolutely amazing question. LOL


Congratulations on your Super finds though Guam! You ARE a lucky man who knows his stuff and who certainly does his homework!!! I'm continuously amazed at the knowledge folks have and share about Japanese rifles and weapons in general. I think that overall, they're sleepers that are often overlooked by collectors. Good fortune for you!

[Guamsst]

Some folks are more worried about what they imagine a gun could be worth than what it actually is. Hence the guy that wanted "Three and a half" for a TRASH 1903 Springfield Mark. I just grinned and said "Well, I guess I could do $350". He felt a bit insulted and made sure I knew he wanted $3,500! I explained to him that without the Pedersen device he just had a worn out 03 with a hole in it. That didn't make him any happier. Last weekend a guy had one in very nice condition for $2,300.......yeah, and I'm the clueless one....LOL

Some of these really rare guns would be $10,000+ if they were mousers. The reality is though that there are only so many people who want Jap rifles. That's part of what I both love and hate about them. The rare stuff is easier to obtain but also harder to move. To come up with the $1,600 value on the Nagoya No series 38 carbine we had to do a lot of guessing based on other guns which had sold that were similar in rarity.

[dave]

I never saw a mouser that was rare, altho a lot are fun to pet, especially when they purr! hehehe!

[Guamsst]

Very very late update. I returned to the same show where I got the Nagoya No Series Carbine. At the next show there a guy brought me a Type30 "School rifle" with circles on the mum. When he handed it to me and I looked at the Mum, it was a Concentric Circle school rifle. Just about the smallest gun show in the country, 47 tables in a town of 1,700. And people wonder why I bother with the little shows.