View Full Version : What recovery
barretcreek
01-27-2022, 02:48
Went down to the big city yesterday, well the closest one with Cabelas, and it didn't look good. Riding shotgun I saw more empty businesses, small work shops which had employed a few people. Fabricators, cabinets, equipment repair. Cabelas had twice as many staff as shoppers. Lots of heavy equipment sitting idle and UP had a half mile or more of locomotives daisy chained.
What's going on where you live?
one shot
01-27-2022, 04:54
Oh were booming cutting firewood getting ready to tap maple trees , poaching deer you name it were busy . What big city were you in barret and did cabelas have anything good on the shelves .
Help wanted signs are everywhere. Businesses are still open but they cannot find employees. Walmart shelves are empty. New cars are scarce. I spoke to a Phoenix native the other day. She is looking for a new Mercedes and the dealer is demanding a $15,000 premium over sticker price. Inflation is nuts. Gas prices are nuts. Stock market is nuts. Watching my nest egg dwindle. Biden is coming to Pittsburgh tomorrow to push his “Build Back Better” agenda. How about “Putting It Back The Way It Was.”
know a guy in the Chevy business,
last time we spoke, maybe a month ago,
they got a load of 10 tahoe's,
9 were sold in a couple days, some as they were pulling off the truck
msrp + dealer installed bs, no haggle,
buy it now or the person behind you will
know a guy in the Chevy business,
last time we spoke, maybe a month ago,
they got a load of 10 tahoe's,
9 were sold in a couple days, some as they were pulling off the truck
msrp + dealer installed bs, no haggle,
buy it now or the person behind you will
Which brings up a question of mine.
Where are people getting all this money?
I know we just got over a what, $600 a week unemployment gift from the taxpayers. This is on top of normal state unemployment payments. Some people are getting a $3,000 a month child payment from the govt. The govt also won't foreclose on anyone nor require them to pay rent or house payments.
From what I hear all this is over now and people who got paid so well to not work, don't. What kind of idiot bankers would be giving loans to someone unemployed but cash rich in stimulus money knowing that it is all going to be pissed away soon? At what point does reality catch up? Will people wait till their CC's are maxed out and their checks bouncing before they think about working?
barretcreek
01-27-2022, 06:20
Oh were booming cutting firewood getting ready to tap maple trees , poaching deer you name it were busy . What big city were you in barret and did cabelas have anything good on the shelves .
West of Denver and east of Ely. Cabelas didn't have anything I wanted but the shelves were full of 'sale'. Not really.
Those CCI primers came straight from CCI. After a loooong wait.
It's a mystery to me how this works. So you got 3 grand in stimulus money last year. Wow, that lasts about four months. It's expensive to live these days. I just filled up the truck and it came to $95.00.
Walmart shelves are a checkerboard of products. The Starbucks are closing for lack of employees (who cares). Somehow people can magicly live with no income?
Roadkingtrax
01-28-2022, 01:05
Which brings up a question of mine.
Where are people getting all this money?
I know we just got over a what, $600 a week unemployment gift from the taxpayers. This is on top of normal state unemployment payments. Some people are getting a $3,000 a month child payment from the govt. The govt also won't foreclose on anyone nor require them to pay rent or house payments.
From what I hear all this is over now and people who got paid so well to not work, don't. What kind of idiot bankers would be giving loans to someone unemployed but cash rich in stimulus money knowing that it is all going to be pissed away soon? At what point does reality catch up? Will people wait till their CC's are maxed out and their checks bouncing before they think about working?
I thought we had a roaring economy? People have money Gunsmoke.
Some National Indicators
Unemployment rate 3.9%
Growth rate of economy 5.95% a rate not seen since April of 1984
My own tracking fund that follows the Standard and Poor is up 29% since January 1, 2021
The problem is the unemployment rate does not take into account people who are actually looking for work. The percentage of adults actually employed has to be taken into account. If only say, 65% of adults of working age are actually working it tempers that unemployment rate number.
Allen:
As far as who has the money to buy the Tahoes, those are being bought by people with plenty of money (there are always some of those) who are just real glad the big SUVs are available at almost any price. For the same reason used cars in anything like good condition are bringing a substantial premium with them. Our son went to the dealer to have his car serviced and the cupboard of both new and used cars was bare. If something is hard to come by people just bite the bullet and spend more money....if the can. Also, since inflation is based (unrealistically) on durable goods an increase in the cost of scarce automobiles drives that up. As they say, too many dollars chasing too little product. I should say to that if perishables like food and fuel were included in the measuring of inflation (by most standards) inflation would be higher than it is.
They've been saying for a long time there is no middle class. Lots and lots of poor and a whole lot of rich. I live in the old neighborhood surrounded by nice new shiny homes. All these folks have nice cars, a travel trailer, a few quads. Some folks have picked up some of our old houses near me. We have big lots. So now they have garages the size of barns. I'm sure they have a nice $600 tool box in the garage whether they need it or not. I still don't understand the current situation. There must be plenty of twenty somethings out there that SHOULD be working at starbucks but I guess now that is beneath them. White kids don't cut grass anymore or deliver newspapers.
Which brings up a question of mine.
Where are people getting all this money?
I know we just got over a what, $600 a week unemployment gift from the taxpayers. This is on top of normal state unemployment payments. Some people are getting a $3,000 a month child payment from the govt. The govt also won't foreclose on anyone nor require them to pay rent or house payments.
From what I hear all this is over now and people who got paid so well to not work, don't. What kind of idiot bankers would be giving loans to someone unemployed but cash rich in stimulus money knowing that it is all going to be pissed away soon? At what point does reality catch up? Will people wait till their CC's are maxed out and their checks bouncing before they think about working?
dunno,
but 2 of those customers stroked a check on the spot,
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The problem is the unemployment rate does not take into account people who are actually looking for work. The percentage of adults actually employed has to be taken into account. If only say, 65% of adults of working age are actually working it tempers that unemployment rate number.
Allen:
As far as who has the money to buy the Tahoes, those are being bought by people with plenty of money (there are always some of those) who are just real glad the big SUVs are available at almost any price. For the same reason used cars in anything like good condition are bringing a substantial premium with them. Our son went to the dealer to have his car serviced and the cupboard of both new and used cars was bare. If something is hard to come by people just bite the bullet and spend more money....if the can. Also, since inflation is based (unrealistically) on durable goods an increase in the cost of scarce automobiles drives that up. As they say, too many dollars chasing too little product. I should say to that if perishables like food and fuel were included in the measuring of inflation (by most standards) inflation would be higher than it is.
driving thru Charlottesville this evening and the local station WWWV, had a dealer advertising 130% of Kelly Blue Book for trades, and stuff available at MSRP., no haggle,
and according to the commercial, not marked up above MSRP
Demand is up for manufactured goods and down for services, including dining and hospitality.
So money people save not eating out chases products off of the shelves. And manufacturing is disrupted by factories shutting down--especially overseas--in response to outbreaks.
togor, while you make a couple of good points, saving on eating out doesn't equal a Tahoe at MSRP, especially if you're paying cash.
one thing abouth this pandemic,
one of the biggest competitors a grocery store has is Restaurants,
that competition was at minimum cut in half in 2020 and 2021,
take out does not (according to some local articles ) equal dine in, dollar wise,
that,
working from home (savings on gas, oil, tires, parking fees,, eating at home vs lunch out etcetc ) saved folks a schload of money
I can say in the firearms collectible field, the prices paid sky rocketed on some things sold on the internet during that time frame as well
and my contacts that are still in the Gro Biz received substantial bonus' for 2021 and 2020, due to the increased sales, and profits,
not much shrink when everything is flying out the front door
togor, while you make a couple of good points, saving on eating out doesn't equal a Tahoe at MSRP, especially if you're paying cash.
Very true.
GM like others slashed their 18 month integrated circuit forecasts, and then the wafer industry had some basic problems. The chip shortage has become like the ammo shortage in that customers have moved away from just-in-time buying. GM is prioritizing highest profit margin vehicles and the mindset for some customers may be "we'll just buy what we can" even if it's more than they originally wanted.
Johnny P
01-29-2022, 08:29
While all the economic indicators are up, inflation is killing the people that can least afford it. "IF" things are really so good, why is Biden so underwater?
... GM is prioritizing highest profit margin vehicles and the mindset for some customers may be "we'll just buy what we can" even if it's more than they originally wanted.
not just GM. Stellantis/FCA/Chrysler has the RAM truck plants (there are two. one building the pre-2019 body known as the Classic and one building the 2019 body) that were both running as 'critical plant status' meaning they could force as many saturdays and sundays as they had parts for (through the end of CY 2021). they just shut down the new body plant for 40 hours (over 3, 8hr shifts) waiting on a part to get to the Instrument Panel manufacturer.
the rest of the Dodge/Jeep/Chrysler product lines were on again/off again all summer, to make sure the chips and other components made it to the truck plants.
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i have a long time friend who must have gotten hit in the head because hes swung so far to the left, hes becoming an anti-capitalist/pro-communist (sad really) and HE SAYS (HS science teacher) that the reason all of these businesses cant reopen from being short staffed are short staffed because the workers have realized they dont need to beg their masters for the bread crumbs they get, the masters being EVIL, GREEDY, BASTARDS who refuse to pay workers what theyre worth...
What is unique about this recovery is the lag in the labor recovery as evidenced by help winter signs everywhere. I have noticed that comments indicate that jobs held by working folks largely suck. It doesn?t take much for the labor lag to persist. Very few folks have jobs like I had prior to retirement (biomedical research). For nearly forty years, I eagerly awaited each day. Contrast that to the burger flipper or the line worker in an auto assembly plant where each day brought the same old drudge.
JohnMOhio
01-30-2022, 07:54
There is money out there. Watched a little of the Barret Jackson auction last night. Several cars went for $700,000 plus. Another went for $1 Million plus and another went for $1.7 Million.
People at the real high end, I mean people with a net worth of $10,000,000.00 plus, can always pay the premium for a scarce item like a Tahoe today, but to show you how silly things are right now look at common used cars. I own a 2019 Subaru Forester. Outfits like Carvana are selling low mileage 2019 Foresters, around 30,000 miles, for about what they cost new. Its not a good time to be buying a car right now, or a lot of other mid to high ticket items. I had to wait 2 1/2 years to take shipment on an Onkyo am/fm stereo receiver, and we waited a year and a half to replace our gas wall oven. I'll admit those two things are not in style right now but there were plenty of people who wanted them and few were getting them.
Its going to be the folks who make from $150,000.00 a year and down who are really taking it in the shorts and its going to get worse if crude oil, which was at $90.00 a barrel last week, pops to $125.00 a barrel and folks have to start thinking about what they'll do without to keep the lights on, much less gas up the "family truckster.'
Johnny P
01-30-2022, 02:05
People with a lot of money are looking for places to park it, and a lot is going into collectibles. The last Barrett Jackson auction I watched had cars selling for substantial amounts over what they sold for last year. High grade collectible firearms are also in demand. Local bank with the highest interest rate on CD's is 0.125%. Compare that to Biden's Build Back Better inflation rate.
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